What’s Happening
Price Action
Over the past week, BTC has dropped back down to the 200-day moving average and is currently resting right above that key support level. It is down -3.35% over the past week.
Figure 1: BTC price has drifted down over the past week.
It continues to oscillate between the 200DMA and the 128DMA.
Figure 2: BTC reclaiming the 128-day moving average.
Over the past three months, BTC has done little more than fluctuate sideways. Price has moved just 3% over those past 3 months as shown on the chart below. This price action has been testing the patience of many market participants and is likely causing problems for retail traders who have been attempting to leverage long breakouts.
Figure 3: BTC choppy price action over the past 3 months.
BTC still remains well above the 1-year moving average ($102,000), see figure 2, which remains the line in the sand for the bull market. Should we lose that level, then the bull market would most likely be over.
For now, we continue to hold the 200-day moving average, which is well above the 1yr moving average. The upside target remains a breakout above the 128-day moving average ($114,500) and maintaining a hold above it. That’s what the bulls are looking for.
The Big Story: Is Strategy (MSTR) Setting Up for a Rebound?
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) remains the undisputed leader among public companies holding bitcoin, with 640,808 BTC on its balance sheet, far ahead of any peer. As the chart below shows, no other company comes close.
Figure 4: Top Treasury Company Holdings over time.
Those holdings, acquired at an average cost near $74,000 per BTC, now represent a substantial unrealized gain with Bitcoin trading above $107,000. Strategy’s profit on their bitcoin is currently over $20B.
Figure 5: Strategy sitting on a +$20B bitcoin paper profit.
Strategy’s position has effectively transformed its balance sheet into a high-beta Bitcoin ETF, one that has also just been recognised for eligibility to join the S&P 500, marking an important milestone for corporate Bitcoin adoption.
Operationally, Strategy reported another strong quarter, posting $2.78 billion in net income versus a $340 million loss a year earlier. The company continues to expand its treasury strategy, adding coins and maintaining disciplined financing that keeps its leverage profile in check.
Yet despite those tailwinds, the share price has come under heavy pressure. MSTR has fallen sharply in recent weeks, underperforming Bitcoin as market participants question the broader category of treasury companies following the influx of new participants into the market. The stock has now dropped below its one-year moving average, a level that often defines long-term trend direction.
Figure 6: MSTR now sitting just below its 1yr moving average.
This is a key inflection point. If price can stabilise above that support and Bitcoin continues to grind higher, MSTR could quickly regain momentum. But failure to reclaim the moving average would signal a deeper consolidation phase ahead. Making this a moment to stay alert and watch closely.
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The Bitcoin Magazine Team.