What’s Happening
Price Action
BTC price action had a step up over the weekend following last week's drop to $109,000. The result is that it is now down just -1.17% over the past week.
Figure 1: BTC now back to similar levels from a week ago.
What’s interesting to see is that this price action is moving around one of the key moving averages we track, the 128-day moving average. Last week BTC price used the level as support once again but then broke below it. However, over the weekend, the price rallied back up to test it, which is where we are right now - sat right at the 128-day moving average.
Figure 2: BTC now resting right on the 128DMA.
If BTC price is rejected at this level, the next major support level, from a moving average perspective, is the 200-day moving average at $104,500.
The 128-day moving average also aligns perfectly right now with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, which is also at $111,500. This means that Bitcoin is now sat at key technical AND onchain support levels.
Figure 3: Short-Term Holder Realized Price.
The Big Story: Is Uptober about to deliver again?
Bitcoin’s sideways grind through much of 2025 has left many wondering if the fourth year of this cycle has underwhelmed expectations.
The Monthly Returns Heatmap (see chart below) makes this clear: compared to past cycles, performance so far has been muted, with a year-to-date gain in 2025 of just under 20%.
For many participants, this isn’t the explosive finale they were anticipating.
Figure 4: Bitcoin monthly returns heatmap.
But history shows that things can change quickly. When we zoom out and look at Bitcoin’s average monthly returns since 2010, October stands out.
Dubbed “Uptober” by the Bitcoin community, it has consistently delivered some of the strongest monthly gains. It has an average monthly gain of 19.4% - which is broadly the same amount of gains BTC has recorded throughout the whole of 2025 to date!
Figure 5: Bitcoin seasonality.
In fact, November has been even better on average, with a whopping gain of 43.74%. Making the October-November window historically the sweet spot of Bitcoin seasonality.
For that pattern to repeat, however, we’ll need to see significant new capital flow into Bitcoin. That would drive market capitalization far above its realized cap - a setup that often fuels FOMO and late-cycle surges.
One of the best ways to track this dynamic is the MVRV Z-Score. Each time in Bitcoin’s history when the Z-Score line has pushed higher, it has reflected that euphoric wave of capital chasing price momentum.
Figure 6: MVRV Z-Score.
So the question is: are we about to see the same pattern unfold again? Could Uptober lead into a blockbuster November, igniting the kind of frenzy that defines cycle peaks?
It couldn’t be that simple… could it?
To check out more Bitcoin metrics like the ones in this newsletter and receive alerts for key Bitcoin charts so you stay ahead of the crowd, subscribe here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Team.