What’s Happening
Price Action
There has been a huge amount of market panic over the past week, with many people fearing Bitcoin has now entered a bear market. Price tumbled back to $100k, briefly dipping below it.
Over the past month Bitcoin is down -9.69%.
Figure 1: BTC price has dropped over the past month.
However, with news just in that the U.S. Government shutdown has been averted, the markets are rallying today.
As a result over the past 24hrs, BTC is now up +4.6% and climbing higher.
Figure 2: BTC climbing over the past 24hrs.
Could the recent panic be overblown, and the low now be in?
Price has once again come down to the 1-year moving average, which has consistently acted as the last line of defence in this bull market.
Figure 3: BTC 1-year moving average acting as support again.
As long as it holds, BTC remains in a bullish phase. Lose it, then we can discuss bear markets.
The Big Story: ETF Outflows Amid Market Panic
The past two weeks have seen significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as markets reacted sharply to BTC’s drop toward the $100k area. The recent red bars on the chart below highlight these outflows across the major Bitcoin ETFs, showing a clear pattern of investor anxiety during this correction.
Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF daily inflows/outflows
The largest and most popular fund, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, has also experienced multiple consecutive days of outflows. This is an unusual development given its steady inflow dominance this year.
Historically, clusters of IBIT outflows have tended to align with local price low areas, reflecting points where market sentiment has become overly pessimistic before a rebound.
Figure 5: BlackRock’s IBIT Outflows
We saw another of these clusters form last week. Could this mark the start of a reversal higher, especially following today’s positive macro headline that the U.S. government shutdown is ending?
If so, ETF inflows are likely to resume, pushing the cumulative inflows chart higher again as Bitcoin continues to attract capital from the broader financial system.
Figure 6: Bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows over time.
Why does this pattern persist? Because Bitcoin continues to assert itself as a hard, scarce asset that serves as long-term wealth protection. The chart below shows the lowest BTC price each year throughout its history. It provides a clear visualisation of the asset’s enduring upward trajectory despite short-term volatility.
Figure 7: Bitcoin Yearly Lows - as bad as it gets.
For many investors, these ETFs are the simplest way to gain long-term exposure to Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside. As more institutions and individuals adopt this view, the structural demand flowing into Bitcoin via ETFs is likely to remain one of the defining forces of this cycle.
To check out more Bitcoin metrics like the ones in this newsletter and receive alerts for key Bitcoin charts so you stay ahead of the crowd, subscribe here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.