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After a brief drop back down towards $100k, BTC has rallied up over the past few days to $105,500.
It was interesting to note that even at the lowest point of the recent pullback late last week, BTC still managed to hold above $100,000. Is this the new normal? Will we ever see a sub-$100,000 BTC again?
Right now BTC is stuck below the range resistance line we have been discussing in this newsletter for many weeks. It has failed to break through twice over the past week. A confident break above with multiple daily closes holding above the resistance level is what is needed to send us up to new all-time-highs.
The range resistance is at $106,000 and BTC is still currently sat just below it.
Figure 1: BTC dropping back below range resistance.
The rally for BTC back up towards all-time-highs has resulted in a +29% gain for BTC over the past 3 months.
Figure 2: BTC Past 3 Months Performance.
If BTC can break out of this current range resistance we may see another similar gain in the coming months once media coverage of the price breakout begins to take hold.
The Big Story: BlackRock IBIT ETF Futures Live on Moscow Exchange
Russia’s Moscow Exchange has begun trading futures linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), giving accredited investors a regulated way to bet on Bitcoin’s price without holding the coins themselves. The contracts are quoted in U.S. dollars, settled in rubles, and run to a first expiry in September 2025, with access limited to investors who pass the exchange’s qualification test.
The launch rides on IBIT’s explosive growth: the 16-month-old ETF has already generated over $50B of net inflows making it one of the most successful ETFs in history. In addition it is now ranked among the 25 largest funds worldwide.
Figure 3: Cumulative Bitcoin ETF Flows, IBIT shown in yellow.
Live Chart
The recent announcement from the Moscow Exchange also follows a policy shift by the Bank of Russia, which recently permitted licensed institutions to offer crypto-linked derivatives, provided they are cash-settled and restricted to qualified clients.
Major lenders have moved quickly: T-Bank (formerly Tinkoff) has rolled out tokenized Bitcoin products via Atomyze, while state-owned Sber has listed a structured bond whose returns track Bitcoin and the dollar–ruble rate, with plans to list it on MOEX next.
Last week's BTC price pullback saw a rare event of net outflows from the IBIT ETF, highlighted by red candles on the chart below.
Figure 4: IBIT Daily Inflows / Outflows
Looking at the entire history of the IBIT ETF this is unusual and has only happened previously at major pullbacks in BTC price.
Chart of the week - Global Liquidity M2
Figure 5: Global Liquidity M2 Chart.
The Global Liquidity M2 chart tracks the M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets like savings deposits and money market funds, across multiple countries or regions. It provides a visual representation of the total liquid money available in the global economy, often used to assess economic health, inflation risks, and monetary policy impacts.
This liquidity is provided by major Central Banks. Our Global Liquidity chart tracks the following major Central Banks:
- USA
- China
- EU
- UK
- Japan
- Canada
- Russia
- Australia
More money in the global system can encourage spending on perceived ‘risk assets' such as Bitcoin. It is therefore extremely valuable for strategic investors to monitor changes in global liquidity over time in relation to Bitcoin price.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have coincided with the accelerated expansion of global liquidity.
This is definitely a critical chart to monitor as we move further into the Bitcoin bull market.
Speak again soon,
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.