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Price Action
In last week’s Weekly Alpha newsletter, we set out a near-term target of $121,500 for BTC at the 0.618 fib extension. Today, that target has been perfectly hit! Bitcoin has tapped the 0.618 and is slightly retracing.
Figure 1: BTC has already hit the 0.618 fib extension target.
With derivatives funding rates and other metrics still relatively low, it is our view at Bitcoin Magazine Pro that BTC can still continue higher. The next near-term target would be the 0.786 fib extension at $127,700.
Bitcoin funding rates show the extent to which derivative traders are bullish or bearish. Tall green bars on the charts below show derivatives markets skewing long - i.e. more traders expecting price to continue higher. That typically happens near BTC price peaks as traders become overconfident.
However, right now, positive funding rates (green bars) remain relatively low, implying BTC price can continue to rise further for some time.
Figure 2: BTC Funding Rates.
The Big Story: BlackRock’s IBIT now holds +700,000BTC, and may soon breach 1M BTC
Quick Snapshot
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Holdings: Over 700,000 BTC (worth roughly $75–80 billion)
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Market Share: IBIT holds around 55 - 56% of all Bitcoin held by U.S. spot ETFs
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Assets Under Management (AUM): Approximately $80 billion, just 18 months after launch!
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Performance Since Inception (Jan 2024): Total return of about 83%
How IBIT Can Reflect Market Sentiment
BlackRock’s IBIT fund recently surpassed 700,000 BTC in holdings, largely driven by consistent inflows. In just one week in July, the fund added roughly 1,500 BTC. At this pace, IBIT is acquiring several days’ worth of global mining output every week, reflecting sustained institutional demand.
Figure 3: BlackRock IBIT Daily Inflows / Outflows.
What is interesting to note as BTC sails past $120k is that the daily inflows of Blackrock over the past couple of weeks have still not exceeded the daily inflows seen back in either March 2024 or Nov 2024 on the chart above.
This suggests that we are not close to reaching extreme greed or euphoria sentiment levels in the market despite the new all-time high in BTC price.
Looking Ahead
Projections based on Cumulative Flows shown in the chart below suggest total U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets could hit $200 billion by the end of 2025.
Figure 4: Cumulative Flows of Bitcoin ETFs.
IBIT is represented by the yellow section on the chart, making its dominance in the market clear to see.
If IBIT maintains its current market share, it could top $110 billion AUM and approach 1 million BTC within the next year.
One thing is for sure: with ETF inflows increasing and Treasury companies like Strategy also buying up Bitcoin, the demand is exceeding the supply being put onto the market, which is pushing BTC price higher.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.