After a turbulent start to 2025, Bitcoin has reignited its upward trajectory, reclaiming six figures and reminding investors why they’ve held through the volatility. But just as the momentum returns, a familiar refrain has surfaced: “Sell in May and go away.” Historically tied to traditional equities, this investing adage is now being echoed within the BTC community as well. But does it hold water in the current market? Let’s dig into the data, across seasonality trends, historical performance, and on-chain indicators to determine whether exiting now is a sound strategy or potentially the biggest missed opportunity of the cycle.
Revisiting The “Sell in May and Go Away” Thesis
This investment strategy, borrowed from traditional finance, suggests exiting the market in May and returning in November due to historically weaker summer performance. The Bitcoin Seasonality chart does indeed point to historical lulls in the summer months, especially from June through September. The broader performance picture tells a more nuanced story, particularly for Bitcoin.
Figure 1: Historically, summer months have lower average returns.
When applied to BTC, this strategy hinges on specific years, namely 2014, 2018, and 2022, where Bitcoin experienced deep, extended bear markets. During those years, the summer months were unequivocally poor for returns. But what if we remove those bear years from the dataset?
Excluding Bear Markets
When the bear market years are excluded, the performance of Bitcoin in every single month, including June through September, turns positive on average. Even September, historically Bitcoin’s worst month, becomes modestly profitable at +0.37%. October alone boasts a strong average return of 26%, historically making it one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months.
Figure 2: Excluding bear market years, the average returns for every month are positive.
This reversal completely undermines the argument for exiting during the summer. The thesis only appears sound when skewed by deep bear cycles. In bull or neutral years, summer holds significant upside potential.
The Real Cost Of Exiting In May
The compounded returns analysis illustrates this point vividly. Using historical month-on-month performance, if you had invested $100 in 2012 and held through each month, including summer, you’d now have over $2 billion in compounded gains.
Figure 3: In terms of compounded returns, an “Exiting in May” strategy underperforms.
But what if you exited in May each year, avoiding June through October? Your ending capital would be just $112 million, nearly 18x lower. Even if you excluded only June through September and returned in October, returns would still fall drastically to $536 million, just around a quarter of the full-hold gains. Missing the summer means missing the exponential nature of Bitcoin compounding.
Is This Summer Different?
Looking at on-chain metrics, especially the MVRV Z-Score, Bitcoin remains structurally healthy and not even close to typical cycle peak levels. The current market setup shows that Bitcoin still has considerable upside room remaining, and if the cycle’s timing mirrors previous bull runs, the actual top may not arrive until October or beyond.
Figure 4: Bitcoin’s current MVRV Z-Score suggests this cycle is far from its peak.
Abandoning a position now, in anticipation of “typical” seasonal weakness, would not only clash with the data but may leave investors sidelined during what could be the most explosive phase of the 2025 cycle.
Conclusion
Although seasonality patterns shouldn’t be ignored outright, they must be contextualized, especially in a macro-driven asset like BTC. Bull cycles, liquidity flows, global economic conditions, and investor behavior matter far more than what month is on the calendar.
Bitcoin’s cycles are primarily supply-and-demand driven, and right now, this summer could very well mark a euphoric period for Bitcoin, with historical patterns, momentum, and structural market dynamics aligning toward strong upside into Q4 2025. Rather than exiting based on seasonal clichés, investors would be better served by monitoring on-chain and macro indicators and staying focused on long-term positioning.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Summer 2025 - Don't Miss Out
Matt Crosby
Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro