After a volatile and eventful start to the year, Bitcoin is now beginning to show signs of aligning for what could become one of the strongest years in its history. With renewed momentum, recovering sentiment, and key metrics flashing green, the question many are asking is simple: Are we about to witness a repeat of the legendary 2017 bull run? Let’s unpack the data, cycle comparisons, behavioral metrics, and long-term holder behavior to assess the probability of Bitcoin entering its final, euphoric phase of this bull market.
How The Current Cycle Stacks Up
The latest leg of bullish price action has reset the narrative. Looking at the BTC Growth Since Cycle Low chart, we can see that despite some macro setbacks and drawdowns, Bitcoin remains closely aligned with the trajectories of the previous two cycles, 2016–2017 and 2020–2021.
Figure 1: Recent bullish price action realigns this cycle with the previous two.
While some analysts speculate this cycle may stretch longer or offer reduced returns, for the time being, we have to use historical averages as our base case. From a time-horizon perspective, we’re approximately 900 days from the cycle low, comparable to the historical topping range of around 1,100 days. If history holds, we may still have a few hundred days left, with the most explosive gains potentially just around the corner. But aligning timelines is just surface-level. Are investor behaviors and market mechanics actually resembling past cycles?
Behavioral Similarities Emerge
To dive deeper into investor psychology, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score was introduced, an evolution of the traditional MVRV-Z that accounts for more recent network dynamics. This indicator adapts to lost coins and illiquid supply, growing ETF and institutional holdings, and shifting long-term holder behaviors.
Interestingly, the current cycle has already registered a relatively high score (3.39) last year when BTC hit ~$73,000. Since then, retracements have led to declining scores, which is not uncommon during mid-cycle consolidations. Comparatively, the 2017 cycle showed multiple high-score peaks before the final blow-off top. This current pattern, with a large spike followed by choppy retracement, then potential new highs, aligns closely with that historical structure.
Figure 2: The 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score reveals similarities between this and the 2017 cycle.
Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, a cross-cycle comparative study was conducted using the rolling MVRV-Z and price action. Surprisingly, the 2013 double-peak cycle holds the strongest behavioral correlation at 91.5%, despite being the furthest removed in time. This is significant, as our current cycle already exhibits two major tops, one pre-halving ($74k) and one post-halving ($100k+). Should another all-time high form later this year, we may be witnessing what we may look back on and consider to be Bitcoin’s first-ever triple-peak bull cycle.
Figure 3: Cross-cycle behavioral correlations using rolling MVRV-Z scores and price action.
Meanwhile, the 2017 cycle shows a respectable 58.6% behavioral correlation, while 2021 remains the least similar in investor behavior terms, though its price action correlation is still in the ~75% range, comparable to the others.
Long-Term Holders Are Still Accumulating
The 1+ Year HODL Wave illustrates that the percentage of BTC unmoved in a year or more continues to trend upward, even as price rises. That’s rare in bull markets and reflects serious conviction.
Figure 4: The rate of change in the 1+ Year HODL Wave suggests long-term holder confidence in future prices.
The rate of change in this HODL wave (especially over 30-day periods) has historically identified both major bottoms (when sharply rising) and major tops (when sharply falling), keep in mind the data in the above chart is inverted for visual simplicity! Today, we’re at a neutral inflection point, far from peak distribution, suggesting long-term holders are still confident in substantially higher prices to come.
Explosive Potential Or More Consolidation?
Could Bitcoin repeat 2017 with a euphoric parabolic rally? Possibly. But it’s more likely this cycle takes on a unique, evolving structure, a blend of historical precedent and modern market dynamics.
Figure 5: Expecting a repeat of 2017’s exponential price appreciation is unrealistic.
We may be at the doorstep of a third major peak within this cycle, something never seen before. Whether this results in a full supercycle-style melt-up remains to be seen, but structurally, many key metrics suggest BTC is far from topping. Importantly, supply is tight, long-term holders are unshaken, and demand is returning, especially in the form of stablecoin growth, institutional interest, and ETF flows.
Conclusion
While it’s tempting to draw direct lines from 2017 or even 2013 and make bold predictions, we must remember that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. It’s maturing, evolving, and increasingly institutionalized. This naturally alters market behavior, but it doesn’t invalidate explosive growth.
At this stage, we can, however, draw upon analysis that supports a structure for sustained future price expansion within the current cycle. Historical cycle correlations remain high, investor behavior is healthy and long-term-focused, technical and behavioral indicators are flashing “room to run”, and there are no major signs of capitulation, profit-taking, or current signs of macro exhaustion. Whether we’re gearing up for a $150k rally or something even larger, the structure is in place. Time will tell if the market delivers on that setup.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Are We Entering Another 2017 Style Bitcoin Supercycle
Matt Crosby
Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro