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BTC continues to look strong after accelerating off the 1-year moving average and breaking back above the 200-day moving average.
It is now sitting firmly back in the Q1 2025 range.
The next noteworthy upside target is the range resistance at $106,000.
Figure 1: BTC has broken back into the range.
This past month has seen a steady increase of +14.21% as BTC has recovered from global market concerns about Trump tariffs.
Figure 2: BTC has recovered well in recent weeks.
While sentiment has returned to more neutral levels, there is yet to be a return to confidence. That return to confidence is unlikely to happen until Bitcoin can break back above the psychological number of $100,000.
The Big Story: Monster 2-week inflows for Bitcoin ETFs
After a jittery start to April, when fresh tariff threats from former President Trump cast a shadow over risk assets, capital is now flowing back into spot Bitcoin ETFs in force.
The rebound began the week of April 21-25, and by the close of trading on Friday, May 2, the products had absorbed roughly US $4.8 billion in total.
Figure 3: Total net inflows into U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (ticker IBIT) has dominated the flow tables. It collected about US $1.3 billion in the April 21-25 window and an even heftier US $2.48 billion the following week.
This means that the IBIT fund alone captured nearly four out of every five dollars that entered the entire ETF complex.
Figure 4: Net inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)
This persistent domination by the IBIT BlackRock ETF can be seen by the cumulative flows across the various ETFs over time. The growth is being driven by the BlackRock IBIT ETF shown as the yellow section on the chart below:
Figure 5: Cumulative ETF flows over time.
April in the green
The scale and persistence of these ETF allocations helped Bitcoin finish April in the green with a gain of +14.21% despite the tariff-related market angst earlier in the month. Quite a turnaround for Bitcoin.
Figure 6: BTC monthly returns heatmap.
The renewed ETF demand appears to have cushioned price dips and rekindled risk appetite, positioning Bitcoin to retest year-to-date highs if macro-economic uncertainty can fully subside as we head towards the second half of 2025.
Live Chart Review: Bitcoin Cycle Master
Figure 7: Bitcoin Cycle Master
What is this chart showing?
Bitcoin Cycle Master is a combination of on-chain metrics including Coin Value Days Destroyed and Terminal Price. The metrics that make up Bitcoin Cycle Master track actual economic behavior on the Bitcoin blockchain.
They are able to identify where Bitcoin price is valued relatively within its cycles. Historically those cycles have been approximately every 4 years and correlate with Bitcoin Halving events.
Bitcoin Cycle Master can identify periods of increased risk when transaction behavior on-chain is indicative of major cycle highs. It also identifies areas of value opportunity where on-chain transaction behavior signals major cycle lows.
It does this by creating a band of value lines on the chart:
- Green: Cycle Lows
- Blue: Undervalued
- Purple: Fair Market Value
- Yellow: Aggressively Valued
- Red: Over Valued
Latest data
In last month's recent downturn, BTC tapped the Fair Market Value (purple) line. It is yet to break above the Aggressively Valued (yellow) line this cycle.
It has broken above both that and the Over Valued (red) line in previous cycles. This suggests there may be significant further upside to come this cycle.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro subscribers can monitor this live chart and set alerts to know when BTC price reaches its key levels.
As a special offer, open for the next 48 hours, you can get 30% off a Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform subscription using this code at checkout: SUBS30.
We look forward to seeing you on the platform!
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.