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Price Action
BTC has continued to range between the two levels we identified in last week's newsletter. Those two levels shown on the chart below are the 0.5 fib extension and the 0.618 fib extension.
The 0.618 is at $121,267, and BTC is yet to have a daily close above that level. If BTC can have multiple daily closes above that level, it may indicate that it is ready to start its next leg up and begin trending higher once again.
Figure 1: BTC continues to range between the 0.5 and 0.618 fib extensions.
Why do we think BTC will ultimately trend up higher. We can look to the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart. It uses a combination of onchain indicators to create bands that highlight whether BTC is under or overvalued.
Currently BTC price is between Fair market value (purple line) at $119,419 and Aggressively valued (orange line) at $151,009.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Cycle Master.
Previous cycles have topped out when BTC price has broken above the Over Valued level (red line), which is currently at $243,145 and climbing higher.
You can learn more about the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart by clicking the Live Chart link above.
The Big Story: 2011 era whale sells +80,000BTC…and price barely flinched!
Record‑Setting Exit
A single early‑era holder has offloaded 80,000 BTC, which is roughly US$9 billion, through broker Galaxy Digital, making it one of the largest bitcoin disposals ever recorded.
Who Sold
We can see from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro chart, Whale Shadows, that the +80,000 BTC transaction originated from an address that is more than 10 years old. This onchain tool shows when large transactions from old bitcoin addresses have moved onchain.
The relative size of the bitcoin moved is shown by the orange bars.
Figure 3: Whale Shadows chart showing large transactions from old addresses.
The chart illustrates the magnitude of this specific transaction in relation to other large sales from addresses that are over 10 years old. It is significantly larger.
Galaxy’s Smooth Block Trade
Galaxy distributed the trove across multiple venues, completing the sale “without a hitch,” and called it “one of the largest notional Bitcoin transactions ever.” The seamless execution underscores how professional liquidity desks now handle whale‑sized orders that once threatened to swamp order books.
Market Absorbs $9 Billion with Ease
News of the dump briefly knocked BTC to about $115,000, but buyers stepped in almost immediately; by day’s end the price had clawed back above $117,000.
Why It Matters
That the market digested a sale of this magnitude with minimal slippage is being read as a sign of structural maturity and ongoing bullish momentum. With the whale’s supply overhang now cleared, the path to fresh highs may be a little easier.
Chart we are watching right now
Bitcoin Investor Tool
Figure 4: Bitcoin Investor Tool.
Purpose
This long‑term valuation model flags moments when Bitcoin is historically over or under‑priced by comparing BTC price to its 2‑year simple moving average (SMA).
How It’s Built
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Green band = 2‑Year moving average: a slow, 730‑day average that smooths out short‑term noise.
- Red bands = 2‑Year moving average × 2, 3, 4, and 5: multiples of the 2yr MA that have repeatedly marked when BTC price is becoming overheated.
Why It Works
Bitcoin tends to swing between extreme optimism and pessimism. The 2‑year moving average anchors price to its long‑run adoption trend, while the red multiple bands capture crowd exuberance. The result is a simple, visually intuitive map of risk and opportunity across cycles.
Take‑Away
Use the chart as a macro compass, not a short‑term trading signal: stack sats when price sinks into the green, consider profit‑taking as price moves into the red, and recognise everything in between as mid‑cycle churn.
Speak again soon!
Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.